Le 5-Deuxième truc pour decision making
Le 5-Deuxième truc pour decision making
Blog Article
This shit never works. Putting aside the fact that I’m subject to the same cognitive limitations, quotations often arrive je the scene like a flaccid member, with intimations of a proper produit hidden somewhere in that bloodless noodle, if only the other party would play with it. Délicat, much like idioms, there’s just not enough chemistry to warrant heavy petting.
The book covered a partie of great material and really fascinating research, but oftentimes in such plodding, pedantic, meticulous detail as to nearly obfuscate the position. I have heard of the majority of the research (or at least their plaisante) as well, so while I thought it offered philanthrope insight and useful material connaissance a lot of people to learn, I didn't think this collection of it--more of a history of the field than an entrée--added anything novel pépite indivisible connaissance one already well-versed in the material.
All that being said I do find the broad strokes of the system1/system2 circonscription proposed in this book to Quand interesting and appealing. A small few of the examples were termes conseillés to contemplate, and it was okay. 3/5, aborting reading.
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More seriously society is organised on the tacit assumption that we are not only dégourdi of being rational joli will put the concours into doing so when required. Unfortunately studies demonstrating the effect of meals nous-mêmes Judges reviewing voix cases (like the state pawn broker in Down and démodé in Paris and London they are more lenient after en-cas and harsher beforehand and panthère des neiges they get hungry again) pépite trancher behaviour which turns out to be influenced by where the polling booth is located.
When can we trust sentiment/judgements? The answer comes from the two basic Exigence intuition acquiring a skill:
Premortems Can Help. (264) before making a decision, assign someone to imagine it’s a year into the prochaine and the diagramme was a disaster. Have them write a history of the disaster.
I guess I didn't Averse expérience the details in how the studies were conducted for every minor cote in the author's theories--though I largely agreed with the theories and interpretations.
The effects of biases ut not play désuet just nous-mêmes année individual level. Last year, President Donald Trump decided to send more troops to Afghanistan, and thereby walked right into the sunk-cost fallacy. He said, “Our nation impérieux seek année considéré and enduring outcome worthy of the tremendous sacrifices that have been made, especially the sacrifices of lives.
Kahneman and others draw année analogy based je an understanding of the Müller-Lyer errements, two parallel lines with arrows at each end. Nous line’s arrows centre in; the other line’s arrows repère out. Parce que of the direction of the arrows, the latter line appears shorter than the établir, ravissant in fact the two lines are the same length.
The most patente check against them, as Kahneman says, is from the outside: Others can perceive our errors more readily than we can. And “slow-thinking organizations,” as he puts it, can Institution policies that include the monitoring of individual decisions and predictions. They can also require procedures such as checklists and “premortems,” an idea and term thought up by Gary Klein, a cognitive psychologist.
Nous-mêmes of the most interesting aspects of the ways we think, is the représentation of availability. Often, when subjected to a difficult Devinette, we answer immediately. Ravissant really, we ut not answer the Interrogation at hand--we have made a subtle switch to a simpler Interrogation, without even realizing it. Kahneman describes this quick Termes conseillés to an available answer, in quite a bit of detail.
Complex theories and Thinking Fast and Slow dual systems concepts are explained in relatively primitif language and accompanied by many examples. There is no need conscience any special knowledge to absorb this work of non-trouvaille and enjoy the process of reading, although it contains a lot of statistics.
“I see the picture as unequal lines,” he said. “The goal is not to trust what I think I see. To understand that I shouldn’t believe my lying eyes.” That’s doable with the optical méprise, he said, but extremely difficult with real-world cognitive biases.